BIG TEN CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO STATE LEADS THE PACK

BIG TEN CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO STATE LEADS THE PACK

Big Ten conference preview: Ohio State leads the pack

By DOC'S SPORTS

Tuesday, August 06, 2013

The Ohio State Buckeyes went 12-0 last year in Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus, but they weren’t eligible for the postseason. The Buckeyes are in the NCAA's good graces this year, but there are a lot of teams looking to knock off Ohio State.

Does anyone have what it takes to dethrone the Buckeyes?

Ohio State Buckeyes (2012: 12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -105
Season win total: 11

Why bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State has nine starters back on offense and it should be much more comfortable with Urban Meyer’s system this year. Braxton Miller is one of football’s best playmakers. Many of the players from last year’s 12-0 team are back, so they know how to win football games. The Buckeyes clearly have the most complete team in the Big Ten.

Why not bet the Buckeyes: Everyone in the country is talking up the Buckeyes and there are going to be some big numbers on OSU this season. While Ohio State has a lot of talent on the defensive side, the linebacker position is extremely thin. Offseason trouble could make this team shorthanded at least at the beginning of the year.

Season win total pick: Over 11

Michigan Wolverines (2012: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +500
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Wolverines: Devin Gardner getting to play a lot last year will help this team a ton in 2013. Fitz Toussaint is going to be better than he was last season. Michigan’s secondary is one of the best in the country again and that is very important in college football today.

Why not bet the Wolverines: Michigan is still lacking playmakers on the outside. Linebacker Jake Ryan was the heart and soul of the defense and he’ll likely miss most if not all of the season. Without Ryan, this defense won’t be as good as it was a year ago.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Michigan State Spartans (2012: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +700
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Spartans: Michigan State is absolutely stacked on defense. Seven of its nine top tacklers from a year ago are back. The Spartans should have the best defense in the Big Ten. Michigan State went 3-5 in the Big Ten last year, but didn’t lose a game inside the conference by more than four points. The Big Ten schedule is very friendly to Michigan State in 2013.

Why not bet the Spartans: A big question mark at quarterback. Andrew Maxwell didn’t get the job done last year and he’s being counted on again in 2013. Even more worrisome is the fact that this offense won’t have Le’Veon Bell to carry them to victories this year.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2012: 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +700
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cornhuskers: Taylor Martinez has finally turned into a complete quarterback. He has always been one of the best running quarterbacks, but he has become a quality passer as well. Ameer Abdullah should have a breakout season in the backfield for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska doesn’t have to play Ohio State or Wisconsin this season.

Why not bet the Cornhuskers: What happened to Nebraska’s defense? This used to be one of the best defenses in the country, but now it is the reason this team can't be considered elite. Nebraska allowed 115 points in its final two games last season and this year’s defense looks even worse on paper.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Northwestern Wildcats (2012: 10-3 SU, 12-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +900
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Pat Fitzgerald does an amazing job getting the most out of his players and he's starting to get much better talent in Evanston. Venric Mark is one of the most dangerous guys in the NCAA and he’ll touch the football a lot this year. The defense is no longer a weakness.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Northwestern drew a very tough Big Ten schedule. The Wildcats have to play both Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders Division. Their November stretch, against Nebraska, Michigan, and Michigan State in three straight games, will be very difficult. The offensive line returns just two starters from a year ago.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Wisconsin Badgers (2012: 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +900
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Badgers: Wisconsin lost only 10 lettermen from last year’s team, which went 8-6, but all of those losses were by seven points or less. Chris Borland is healthy again and he could end up being the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. James White will be great at the running back spot for Wisconsin.

Why not bet the Badgers: The Badgers don’t have a solid quarterback option. Joel Stave and Curt Phillips are battling for the job, but neither of them are game changers. Though the Badgers didn’t lose a lot of players, they did lose both RB Montee Ball and star linebacker Mike Taylor. It’s the team’s first year in a new system.

Season win total pick: Under 9

Iowa Hawkeyes (2012: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4500
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa seems to be at its best when expectations are low and expectations haven’t been this low in a long time. The Hawkeyes may have the best trio of linebackers in the entire conference and that's worth a lot in the Big Ten. Mark Weisman and Damon Bullock should help complete the backfield nicely.

Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Who will be the starting quarterback? Cody Sokol will likely get the first chance under center, but there's definitely a quarterback competition in Iowa City. Iowa is very weak at the wide receiver spot and that certainly won’t help its new quarterback.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Indiana Hoosiers (2012: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4800
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Hoosiers: Indiana’s offense is loaded with talent and it all starts at the quarterback position. The Hoosiers have three very capable quarterbacks who would all do a great job in Kevin Wilson’s system. Indiana returns 19 starters from a team that surprised people by winning four games a year ago.

Why not bet the Hoosiers: Have expectations risen too quickly? Defensively, Indiana has a very long ways to go to be competitive in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers allowed 35.3 points per game last season. Nine starters return on the defense but that might not be a good thing when looking at the lack of overall talent.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2012: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Golden Gophers: Jerry Kill is doing a great job getting this team to believe in his system. The fact that this team was able to get to a bowl game last year was a minor miracle. The Golden Gophers defense has improved by leaps and bounds in Kill’s first two seasons at Minnesota.

Why not bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota drew a difficult Big Ten schedule. They must travel to Michigan, Northwestern, and Michigan State. Phillip Nelson completed less than 50 percent of his passes in 2012 and he's a big question mark at the quarterback spot. The offense averaged just 22.1 points per game last season.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Purdue Boilermakers (2012: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +9000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Boilermakers: Darrell Hazell worked his magic at Kent State and he should be a great coach for the Boilermakers as well. Hazell was a longtime assistant at Ohio State, so he is familiar with the Big Ten. Purdue returns six of its top seven tacklers from a year ago.

Why not bet the Boilermakers: Purdue only returns five starters on the offensive side of the ball. The Boilermakers lost their top two quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher and leading receiver from last season. Purdue has a brutal non-conference schedule, which leads right into a very difficult Big Ten schedule.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Illinois Fighting Illini (2012 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Illini: They can’t be worse than last year. Illinois had far too much talent to go winless in a weak Big Ten last season and it still has a decent amount of talent on this roster. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is healthy and should be better in 2013.

Why not bet the Illini: Illinois misses out on the weak teams in the Big Ten and must play all of the top programs. The Fighting Illini seemed to be lost in Tim Beckman’s system last year and that might not change much in 2013. The defense gave up 32.1 points per game last season and it probably won’t be any better this year.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: N/A (Ineligible for postseason play)
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Nittany Lions: Bill O’Brien stepped into a very tough situation and got his team to play very hard for him. You have to think that will just continue in the coming years. Penn State got one of the top quarterback recruits in the country in Christian Hackenburg.

Why not bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State lost a ton of talent from last year’s team. The Nittany Lions lost 32 lettermen and four of their top five tacklers from a year ago are gone. The defense was the strength of this team but their heart and soul must be replaced.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5